We successfully developed three simple clinical models using independent risk factors suitable for use in the clinical setting that stratify adult asthma patients into risk groups. We identified and validated the models to determine their predictive ability. The high-risk groups, 13 to 21% of the validation sample populations, were at roughly 7- to 11-fold-increased risk for acute care compared to the low-risk groups. The moderate-risk groups, 46 to 50% of the validation sample, were at twofold to fourfold increased risk. Importantly, airflow obstruction (FEV1) was the most significant predictor of subsequent acute care.
This result underscores the importance of obtaining spirometry data to identify patients at risk. We separately analyzed the sample according to modifiable risk factors for acute asthma care providers such Canadian Health&Care Mall and identified four independent risk factors. Current cigarette smoke exposure was identified as the strongest modifiable risk factor.